Data current as of 2026-10-16 · Sourced from NOAA Storm Events
Over the past five years, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has recorded 21 hail storms within 25 miles of Surprise, AZ. Of those, 15 produced hail at least quarter-size — the threshold most insurance carriers consider potentially damaging to asphalt shingles. The largest reported hail in this window was egg-sized, which can fracture shingle mat and dent metal flashing on contact. 2025 was the most active year on record locally, with 11 documented hail events.
Check Hail History for a Specific Address in Surprise| Severity | Count | What it means for roofs |
|---|---|---|
| Destructive | 1 event | Egg-size, expect mat fractures and gutter damage |
| Severe | 1 event | Ping pong-size, granule loss and bruising common |
| Significant | 13 events | Quarter-size, the standard insurance damage threshold |
| Moderate | 5 events | Marble-size, possible cosmetic damage |
| Minor | 1 event | Pea-size, unlikely to damage modern shingles |
| Year | Reported Hail Events Within 25 mi |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 event |
| 2025 | 11 events |
| 2024 | 4 events |
| 2022 | 5 events |
2025 was the busiest hail year on record locally for Surprise, with 11 documented events inside the 25-mile radius. Storm activity in Surprise typically peaks in spring and early summer, when the jet stream pushes Gulf moisture into the area and supercell thunderstorms become more frequent.
| Date | Location | Severity | Size | NOAA Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 6 WNW Goodyear, AZ | Significant | 1.25" | Reported slightly smaller than golf ball sized hail. Rounded down to half dollar size based on radar. |
| 2025-11-19 | WEST END, AZ | Minor | 0.25" | Report of a partial roof collapse of a business at Desert Sky Mall, likely due to the weight of the rain and accumulated small hail. A trained spotter reported the ground was covered in hail and people were having hail-ball fights. Timing estimated from radar. No injuries reported. |
| 2025-11-18 | WITTMANN, AZ | Significant | 1.00" | Report of hail up to 1 inch in diameter in Sun City Festival. Hail also accumulated to cover the ground. No damages or injuries reported. |
| 2025-10-12 | NEW RIVER, AZ | Significant | 1.00" | Video showed 1 diameter hail near New River. Timing estimated from radar. No damages or injuries were reported. |
| 2025-10-12 | NEW RIVER, AZ | Severe | 1.50" | Images showed 1.5 diameter hail in Anthem. Timing estimated from radar. No damages or injuries reported. |
| 2025-09-26 | PHOENIX, AZ | Significant | 1.00" | Photo of quarter-sized hail at West Pinchot Avenue and North 22nd Avenue in Phoenix. Location approximated based on radar. No injuries or damage reported. |
| 2025-09-26 | CACTUS, AZ | Moderate | 0.75" | — |
| 2025-09-26 | SUN CITY, AZ | Moderate | 0.75" | Hail measured at 3/4 of an inch in diameter at the intersection of 99th Street and Thunderbird Road in Sun City. No injuries or damage reported. |
| 2025-09-26 | SUN CITY, AZ | Significant | 1.00" | Photo of estimated quarter-sized hail along Western Desert Hills Drive in Sun Lakes. Location approximated based on radar. No damage or injuries reported. |
| 2025-09-26 | PHOENIX, AZ | Significant | 1.25" | Reports of 1-1.25 inch diameter hail between West Highland Avenue and West Coolidge Street in Phoenix. No damage or injuries reported. |
| 2025-09-26 | PHOENIX, AZ | Significant | 1.00" | Reports of 1 inch diameter hail in between East Denton Lane and East Vernon Avenue in Phoenix. No injuries or damage reported. |
| 2025-09-26 | PAPAGO AAF ARPT, AZ | Moderate | 0.75" | Reports of 0.75 inch diameter hail near North Superstition Lane and East Starlight Way in Paradise Valley. No injuries or damage were reported. |
| 2024-07-24 | (PHX)SKY HARBOR ARPT, AZ | Significant | 1.00" | Quarter-sized hail reported in the area of 7th Street and Baseline Road in Phoenix. No damages nor injuries were reported. |
| 2024-07-24 | LAVEEN, AZ | Significant | 1.25" | Half dollar sized hail reported in the area 19th Avenue and Southern Avenue in Phoenix. No damages nor injuries were reported. |
| 2024-07-24 | (PHX)SKY HARBOR ARPT, AZ | Significant | 1.00" | Hail up to one-inch in diameter reported in the area of 7th Avenue and Southern Avenue. No damages nor injuries were reported. |
| 2024-07-14 | CAVE CREEK, AZ | Significant | 1.00" | Quarter-sized hail reported in the area of Carefree Highway and Black Mountain Parkway in Cave Creek from thunderstorm. No damages nor injuries were reported. |
| 2022-10-16 | PARADISE VLY, AZ | Destructive | 2.00" | Hailstones up to 2 inches in diameter reported near 64th St. and Shea Blvd in Paradise Valley. No damages or injuries were reported. |
| 2022-10-16 | PARADISE VLY, AZ | Significant | 1.00" | Report of quarter sized hail near Scottsdale Road and Doubletree Ranch Rd in Paradise valley. No damages or injuries were reported. |
| 2022-10-03 | WADDELL, AZ | Moderate | 0.88" | Hail of the size of nickels was reported along North 183rd Avenue in Surprise. Timing estimated from radar. No damages or injuries were reported. |
| 2022-08-23 | GLENDALE, AZ | Significant | 1.00" | Social media video showed nickel to quarter-sized hail fell in the area between West Glendale Avenue and North 35th Avenue. Timing estimated from radar. No damages or injuries were reported. |
NOAA has recorded 187 high-wind events within 25 miles of Surprise, AZ in the past five years. Of those, 176 reached severe-thunderstorm thresholds (58+ mph). The highest measured gust was 86 mph.
| Severity | Count |
|---|---|
| Severe | 69 events |
| Significant | 107 events |
| Moderate | 11 events |
| Date | Location | Gust (mph) | Severity | NOAA Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2 NW Beardsley, AZ | 55 | Significant | Images of a destroyed small metal shed and damaged wooden fence. Wind gusts estimated between 45-55 mph. |
| 2026-08-20 | Sky Harbor Airport, AZ | 68 | Severe | The automated weather station at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport reported a maximum wind gust of 68 mph. ASOS station KPHX Phoenix Sky Hrbr. |
| 2026-08-20 | 3 ENE Deer Valley, AZ | 66 | Severe | The automated weather station at Deer Valley Airport reported a maximum wind gust of 66 mph. ASOS station KDVT Phoenix Deer Vly. |
| 2026-08-13 | 3 ENE Avondale, AZ | 52 | Significant | Mesonet station FW3161 Avondale. |
| 2026-08-13 | 5 SSE Avondale, AZ | 63 | Significant | Mesonet station GW3424 PHOENIX RACEWAY INFIELD. |
| 2026-08-11 | 5 WNW Buckeye, AZ | 56 | Significant | AWOS station KBXK Buckeye. |
| 2026-08-10 | 5 WNW Buckeye, AZ | 72 | Severe | AWOS station KBXK Buckeye. |
| 2026-08-10 | 5 WNW Buckeye, AZ | 62 | Significant | AWOS station KBXK Buckeye. |
| 2026-08-10 | 6 WNW Goodyear, AZ | 84 | Severe | Mesonet station GW6437 BUCKEYE. |
| 2026-08-10 | 3 ENE Avondale, AZ | 57 | Significant | Mesonet station FW3161 Avondale. |
| 2026-08-10 | 5 ENE Glendale, AZ | 55 | Significant | Mesonet station SRP29 4.9 E Glendale (SRP). |
| 2026-07-21 | 2 WSW North Scottsdale, AZ | 51 | Significant | — |
| 2026-07-14 | Sky Harbor Airport, AZ | 53 | Significant | Wind gust up to 53 mph measured. ASOS station KPHX Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport. |
| 2026-07-14 | 3 ENE Deer Valley, AZ | 67 | Severe | Wind gust associated with outflow boundary measured at 67 mph. ASOS station KDVT Phoenix Deer Valley Airport. |
| 2025-11-19 | PHOENIX TURF ARPT, AZ | 40 | Moderate | Photo showed a toppled large dead tree near the area of North 7th Street and East Grovers Avenue in Phoenix. Wind gusts were estimated at around 40 mph. Timing estimated from radar. No injuries reported. |
| 2025-11-19 | GLENDALE, AZ | 40 | Moderate | Downed power lines leading to power outage reported in the area of North 51st Avenue to North 47th Avenue and West Orangewood Avenue to West Maryland Avenue in Glendale. Based on radar evidence and surface observations, wind gusts were estimated upwards of 40 mph. Saturated loose grounds from previous rainfall likely made power lines more susceptible to go down with sub-severe winds. Timing estimated from radar. No injuries reported. |
| 2025-11-19 | SUNNYSLOPE, AZ | 40 | Moderate | Downed power lines leading to power outage reported in the area of North 31st Avenue to North 23rd Avenue and Northern Avenue to West Maryland Avenue in Glendale. Based on radar evidence and surface observations, wind gusts were estimated upwards of 40 mph. Saturated loose grounds from previous rainfall likely made power lines more susceptible to go down with sub-severe winds. Timing estimated from radar. No injuries reported. |
| 2025-10-13 | (PHX)SKY HARBOR ARPT, AZ | 63 | Significant | Downed powerlines along Air Ln between 32nd and 36th street near Sky Harbor Airport. Wind gusts were estimated at 60-65 mph. No injuries reported. |
| 2025-10-13 | KENDALL, AZ | 63 | Significant | A 63 mph peak gust measured at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. |
| 2025-10-13 | SCOTTSDALE MUNI, AZ | 60 | Significant | Several large palo verde trees snapped in half and a metal shed blown from a home onto the middle of 56th street near the intersection with Thunderbird Road in Scottsdale. Wind gusts were estimated at near 60 mph. No injuries reported. |
The most recent quarter-size-or-larger hail storm recorded by NOAA within 25 miles of Surprise was on August 10, 2026. HailCheck refreshes from the NOAA Storm Events database daily, so newer events appear here as they are reported.
Surprise averages roughly 4 reported hail events per year within a 25-mile radius. Significant storms (quarter-size or larger) account for 15 of the 21 events recorded over the last five years.
The largest documented hail near Surprise in the last five years was egg-sized. Most Surprise-area hail falls in the marble-to-quarter range, with destructive storms (egg-size or larger) appearing roughly once every few years.
Most homeowners insurance policies in AZ cover hail damage to roofs, siding, and gutters under the dwelling and other-structures coverage. Coverage typically requires the damage to be tied to a verifiable storm date — which is where the NOAA hail history above (and a HAAG-style test square validation) becomes important for the claim file.
Use the HailCheck address search to enter any street address in or near Surprise. HailCheck returns every NOAA hail event within a configurable radius, along with severity bands, dates, and storm narratives for Pro members.
If your property in or near Surprise took on hail during one of the storms above, the standard process for documenting damage is a 10×10 foot test square inspection. A HAAG-trained reviewer counts impact indicators — granule displacement, mat fractures, and bruising — within the marked square and produces a PASS or FAIL document for the claim file.
HailCheck offers a $99 photo-based HAAG-style test square validation. You submit photos from the field, our reviewer evaluates the impact indicators and cross-references the NOAA storm dates listed above, and a written PASS/FAIL determination is returned within one business day. We do not send anyone to the roof — the validation is built around the photos you submit.
Learn About $99 HAAG-Style ValidationSurprise sits east of the traditional hail alley, where hail events are less frequent than the central plains but tend to be associated with strong squall lines and tropical systems. Local roof systems are less commonly hardened for hail, which can mean even moderate impacts produce claim-worthy damage.